Wars of 2022

This is an ongoing list of wars fought in 2022. For clarity, I will use the definition from the Upsalla Conflict Data Programme, a leading authority on wars and conflicts.

A war must:

1. be an armed conflict between states and armed groups involving military and paramilitary units.
2. have over 1,000+ battle-related casualties in a given calendar year.

The broader definition of ‘armed conflicts’ includes insurgencies and smaller-scale clashes. All wars are armed conflicts, but not all armed conflicts are wars.

This list does not include:

• insurgencies spread across multiple countries whose casualties exceed 1,000.
• wars whose casualties have not yet exceeded 1,000 in 2022. I will update, as these occur.

For a full list of ongoing wars, see Wikipedia or Worldpopulation Review.

Today, not all wars are as clear-cut as state conflicts were in the past, where one country fought another. Most are civil wars between governments and arrays of competing rebel groups. As most deaths go unreported, I have taken the highest average estimates. The casualties below are rounded to the nearest 1,000.

Burmese Civil War (Myanmar Conflict)

• Since 1948. Civil war involving Burmese government and rebel groups. 16,000 + casualties

War in Afghanistan

• Since 1978. Civil war involving Taliban government, Islamic State and other rebel groups. 3,000+ casualties.

Colombian Conflict

• Since 1964. Insurgency involving Colombian government, rebel groups and drug cartels. 2,000+ casualties.

Somali Civil War

• Since 1991. Civil war involving Somali government (with US, UK, Turkish and Italian support), Al-Qaeda and Islamic State. 5,000+ casualties.

Allied Democratic Forces insurgency.

• Since 1991. Insurgency involving the Ugandan and Congolese governments and the ‘Allied Democratic Forces’, a Ugandan rebel group. 3,000+ casualties.

War in Darfur

• Since 2003. Civil war involving Sudanese government (with Belarussian and Libyan support) and rebel groups (with South Sudanese support). 1000+ dead.

Mexican Drug War

• Since 2006. Drug war involving Mexican government and drug cartels. 6,000+ casualties.

Syrian Civil War

• Since 2011. Civil war involving Syrian government (with Russian and Iranian support) and rebel groups. 4,000 + casualties.

Nigerian bandit conflict

• Since 2011. Civil war involving Nigerian government, bandit gangs and rebel groups. 2,000+ casualties.

Mali War

• Since 2012. Civil war involving Malinese government, rebel groups and Al-Qaeda. 4,000+ casualties.

Yemeni Civil War

• Since 2014. Civil war between Yemeni government (with Saudi, US and UAE support) and Houthi Rebels (with Iranian support). 6,000 + casualties.

Civil wars in Ethiopia

• Since 2018, including Tigray War. Civil war between Ethiopian government (with Eritrean support) and Tigray rebels, Sudan and Al-Qaeda. 100,000 + casualties.

Russo-Ukrainean War

• Since 2022. Inter-state war between Russia and Ukraine. 156,000 + casualties.

Sources: Uppsala Conflict Data Programme, Wikipedia (lists sources for casualty counts), World Population Review

Rojava

Rojava (2016-) is the unrecognised Kurdish state in Syria. Officially ‘the autonomous confederation of North and East Syria’, it governs 3 million Kurds and 2 million Arabs, Assyrians, Syriac Christians, Circassians, Turkmen and Armenians. Rojava spans a third of Syria and is a key player in the Syrian Civil War. Abandoned by its US allies last weekend, it currently faces a Turkish invasion.

The Kurds are a Western Iranian people living in the highlands of the Middle East. The breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918-23 divided their homeland between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. They have struggled for independence ever since. Kurds are 20% of Turkey and 10% of Syria. Most are Sunni Muslims.

Rojava’s ideology follows the teachings of Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), a Kurdish rebel group based in Turkey. Their Social Contract advocates a secular, decentralised system, governed by democratic assemblies, that enshrines women’s and minority rights. Their libertarian socialist experiment puts them at odds with both Syria’s Baathist dictatorship and the Islamists fighting it.

In 2012 overextended Syrian troops withdrew from the country’s northeast, letting Kurdish militias fill the vacuum. In 2014 ISIS seized the Kurdish city of Kobani. The Kurds retaliated with help from the PKK. With American air support, they spearheaded the fight against ISIS and in 2016 established Rojava across Kurdish and Arab lands that include Syria’s oilfields.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is Rojava’s army. It encompasses a Kurdish core and allied Arab militias. As US allies, the SDF proved better organised and more reliable than the ‘moderate’ rebels previously supported. Volunteers from around the world flocked to their banners like the International Brigades of the Spanish Civil War. Their female fighters terrified ISIS, who believe they will not go to heaven if killed by a woman. In March 2019 the SDF destroyed the last ISIS stronghold in Syria. Thousands of prisoners fell into their hands.

Turkey, though allied with the US, considers Rojava a terrorist entity. This is due to their ties with the PKK, whom Turkey and the USA deem terrorists. A Kurdish state at Turkey’s borders will embolden the PKK and possibly support their 40-year struggle. Turkey dared not strike Rojava while US troops were stationed there, however allied Syrian rebels fight on its behalf.

In October 2019 Donald Trump announced full American withdrawal from Syria. Their objective – to destroy ISIS – was complete. As soon as they left, Turkish troops invaded. Turkey seeks to establish a ‘safe zone’ along the border in which to resettle two million Syrian refugees and separate Rojava from the PKK. That safe zone contains much of the Kurdish population and key cities the SDF pledges to defend.

Rojava stands no chance on its own. Despite their experience and drive, SDF foot soldiers are no match for NATO’s second-largest military, fully equipped with aircraft and tanks. Since Sunday, 104 fighters and 60 civilians have died, with casualties mounting. With the US gone, their only hope is to ally with the Syrian regime, the same one that has denied Kurds civil rights for decades. Should their 12,000 prisoners of war escape, ISIS will rise again.

Mazlam Abdi, SDF commander-in-chief:

“We know that we would have to make painful compromises with Moscow and Bashar al-Assad if we go down the road of working with them. But if we have to choose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life for our people.”

Sources: Associated Press, Al Jazeera, BBC, Democracy Now, The Economist, Foreign Policy

See Also:

• The World’s Strongest Militant Groups
• White Helmets
• 2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria
• Stormclouds over Idlib
• The 2010s

The World’s Strongest Militant Groups

What follows are the ten strongest militant groups, paramilitaries, narco armies, terrorist organizations and rebel militias active in 2018. Whether you consider them terrorists or freedom fighters, militants are involved in every conflict in the world today. Some are shadowy insurgencies while others control states in their own right, complete with civil services and standing armies.

This post assesses the strength of a rebel army by number of fighters, military effectiveness, funding and territory controlled. Being difficult to ascertain the true strength of these organisations, I have used the most up to date estimates by official sources I can find.  Please note the number of fighters reflects active personnel only. Many militant groups can call on larger pools of reservists and militia. As many groups change their names frequently, for the sake of clarity I will use the monikers favoured by western media.

Honourable mentions: Naxalites (Indian communists), Asaib Ahl al-Haq (Iraqi Shi’ite militia), Shan State Army – South (Burmese separatists), New People’s Army (Filipino communists), Nuer White Army (South Sudanese rebels).

10: Kachin Independence Army

• Official name: ShangLawt Hpyen (Kachin Independence Army)
• Founded: 1961
• Ideology: Kachin nationalism, separatism
• Goals: independence of Kachin state
• Area of operation: Burma, China
• Territory controlled: Kachin State, Burma
• Estimated strength: 12,000 (Myanmar Peace Monitor, 2018)

Kachin are the Christian people inhabiting Burma’s northernmost region, a mountainous land rich in jade, gold and amber. The KIA has fought the Burmese government for independence since 1961, save for a 17 year ceasefire which ended in 2011. They are disciplined and effective guerrillas, who fund themselves through the sale of natural minerals. Tthe Kachin Independence Army currently leads a coalition of ethnic rebel groups against the Burmese government.

9: Hamas

• Full name: Harakat al-Muqawana al-Islamiya (Islamic Resistance Movement)
• Founded: 1987
• Ideology: Palestinian nationalism, Sunni fundamentalism, anti-zionism, jihad
• Goals: destruction of Israel, establishment of an Islamic State in Palestine
• Territory controlled: Gaza Strip
• Area of Operation: Palestine, Israel, Egypt
• Estimated Strength: 25,000 (Counter Extremist Project, 2017)

Hamas controls the Gaza Strip – one half of the Palestinian territory.  Though 136 UN members recognise Palestinian statehood, Hamas’s military wing owes its allegiance to the party, not the Palestinian Authority. They are considered a terrorist organisation by the US, EU, Australia and New Zealand. Hamas claims “all types of legitimate resistance are practised to end the oppression and injustices imposed by Israel”. This includes rocket attacks and suicide bombs against both civilian and military targets.

Hamas arose in the Second Intifada (uprising).  They have since replaced the secular PLO as the main resistance against Israel. Blockaded by its neighbours, Hamas survives on Qatari and Iranian aid.

8: United Wa State Army

• Official name: Wǎbāng Liánhéjūn (United Wa State Army )
• Founded: 1989
• Ideology: Wa nationalism, separatism
• Goals: independence of Wa State
• Area of Operation:  Burma
• Territory controlled: Wa State, Burma
• Estimated strength: 25,000 (Myanmar Peace Monitor, 2015)

The UWSA is Burma’s most powerful ethnic militia. Formed from the remnants of the old communist movement, in the 1990s the Wa replaced Khun Sa’s Mong Tai army as the Golden Triangle’s premier narcotics smugglers. Though independent of the central government, they are loosely allied with the Burmese military against the Shan rebels. The UWSA controls territory along the Burmese-Thai border, where they fund themselves through the amphetamine trafficking.  The UWSA allegedly purchases its arms from China, making its soldiers better equipped than its rivals.

7: ISIS

• Full name: ad-Dawlah al Islamiya (Islamic State)
• Ideology: Sunni fundamentalism, wahhabism, jihad
• Goals: establishment of a global caliphate
• Area of operation: Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Nigeria, Russian Caucasus, Afghanistan, Pakistan and the Philippines.
• Territory controlled: small parts of Syria, Libya, Nigeria and Afghanistan.
• Estimated strength: 33,000 (United Nations, 2018)

Were this post written two years ago ISIS would have topped the list.  In 2014 their self-declared caliphate spanned half of Iraq and Syria, but, since the fall of Mosul and Raqqa, has diminished to a few pockets in the Syrian desert. ISIS is far from finished however. As well as an extensive network of terrorist cells, ISIS subsidiary groups still fight in the war-torn parts of the Muslim world. This includes Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines, who briefly seized the city of Marawi in 2017, and a Libyan affiliate around 4,000 strong. ISIS militants are also active in Egypt’s Sinai province and Afghanistan.

Their strongest branch is Boko Haram. In 2015 this rebel group declared itself the caliphate’s West African province.  Their war against the Nigerian government has cost over 20,000 lives and they still control much of the country’s north.

6: Al Qaeda

• Full name: Al Qaeda (The Base)
• Founded: 1988
• Ideology: Sunni fundamentalism, Wahhabism, jihad
• Goals: establishment of a global caliphate
• Area of operation: Afghanistan, Algeria, Bangladesh, Burma, Djibouti, Ethiopia, France, India,  Kenya, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Syria, Tunisia, United States, Yemen
• Territory controlled: parts of Yemen and southern Somalia and  Idlib province, Syria
• Estimated strength: 34,000 (Council on Foreign Relations, 2018)

The group responsible for 9/11 benefited immensely from the Arab Spring and the wars that followed. Under the leadership of Bin Laden’s successor Ayman Al-Zawahiri, Al Qaeda’s is no longer just a shadowy terror group, but a network of affiliated militias with thousands under their command. This includes Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, who operate in Libya, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian peninsula in Yemen and Tahir Al-Sham, the strongest group still fighting Assad in Syria.

Al-Shabaab, who joined Al-Qaeda in 2012, is their strongest branch.  Their 9,000 fighters oppose the Somali government and its African Union allies.

Like its breakaway rival ISIS, Al Qaeda is committed to the creation of a global caliphate. Israel and the USA are its greatest foes. Al-Qaeda is the most internationalised group in this list.

5. Taliban

• Official name: Ansar Allah (Supporters of God)
• Founded: 1994
• Ideology: Sunni fundamentalism, jihad, Deobandi fundamentalism, Pashtun nationalism
• Goals: Overthrow of the Afghan government, restoration of Taliban rule
• Area of operation: Afghanistan, Pakistan
• Territory controlled: Helmand Province, Afghanistan
• Estimated Strength: 60,000 (Counter Extremist Project, 2014)

The Taliban were among US-backed Mujahideen fighting Afghanistan’s Soviet-backed government in the 1980s. In 1996 they seized the country and enforced their strict interpretation of Islamic law. Though the 2001 US invasion toppled the Taliban government, they retreated to the mountains and licked their wounds. Employing the new strategies of suicide bombing and drug trafficking, the Taliban launched an insurgency in 2006. Now they operate on both sides of the Pakistani border. Stronger than they have been in years, the Taliban now threaten 70% of Afghanistan.

4. Houthi Movement

• Official Name: Ansar Allah (Supporters of God)
• Founded: 1994
• Ideology: Zaidi revivalism, Shia fundamentalism, anti-Zionism
• Goals: establishment of a Zaidi state in Yemen
• Area of operation: Yemen
• Territory controlled: Western Yemen
• Estimated strength: 100,000 (CNN, 2011)

The Houthis are an alliance of Shi’ite tribesmen fighting in Yemen. Starting as a revivalist group among the Zaidi sect, the Houthis rebelled against Yemen’s Saudi backed, Sunni dominated government in 2004 in a bid to preserve their culture and rid the country of western and Saudi influence. In 2014 the Houthis seized the capital, San’a, which prompted the intervention of Saudi Arabia and a prolonging of the conflict. The Houthis are bankrolled by Iran and bombed by Saudi, Emirati and US jets. Their banner translates to ‘God is great! Death to America! Death to Israel! Curse upon the Jews! Victory to Islam!’ Despite this, the Houthis do not directly threaten either country.

3. Pro-Russian Separatists

• Official name: United Armed Forces of Novorossiya
• Founded: 2014
• Ideology: Russian nationalism, separatism
• Goals: independence of Luhansk and Donetsk from Ukraine
• Area of operation: Ukraine
• Territory controlled: Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts, Ukraine
• Estimated strength: 40,000

The United Armed Forces of Novorossiya consist of the Donestk and Luhansk People’s Militias – armed rebels fighting the government of Ukraine. In June 2015, the Ukrainian defence minister claimed the rebels had an army ‘sufficient for a mid-level European state’.  This includes infantry, Russian supplied IFVs, tanks and anti-aircraft missiles. An indeterminate number of Russian ‘volunteers’ fight in their ranks, though the Kremlin denies official involvement. Controlling a functional state in Ukraine’s Russian speaking regions, the separatists are well equipped, disciplined and organised.

2. Syrian Democratic Forces

• Official Name: Hezen Suriya Demokratik (Syrian Democratic Forces)
• Founded: 2015
• Ideology: Democracy, libertarian socialism, federalism, secularism
• Goals: creation of a democratic federal system in Syria
• Area of Operation:  Syria
• Territory controlled: Rojava, northern Syria
• Estimated Strength: 70,000 (SyrianCivilWarMap, 2018)

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are the armed forces of the self-declared ‘Democratic Federation of Northern  Syria’.  Though the core of their force is the Kurdish Peoples Protection Forces  (YPG), the SDF ranks also include Arabs, Turkmens, Assyrians and Armenians.  Because they are sworn enemies with ISIS and other jihadist groups, the SDF enjoy aerial support from the US and an uneasy peace with the Syrian government. Unlike other factions in the Syrian Civil War, the SDF includes units of women fighters.  Due to links with the Kurdistan Workers Party, they are enemies of the Turkish government.

1. Hezbollah

• Full name: Kata’eb Hezbollah (Party of God)
• Founded: 1985
• Ideology: Shi’ite fundamentalism, anti-zionism, jihad
• Goals: destruction of Israel
• Territory controlled: southern Lebanon, southern Beirut, Bekaa Valley
• Area of Operation: Lebanon, Syria, Iraq
• Estimated Strength: 65,000 (Southfront, 2016)

Hezbollah is a Lebanese Shi’ite militia and political party closely aligned with Iran. During Israeli occupation of the 1980s, Hezbollah emerged as the strongest force in Lebanon, of which it controls a third. Although not the largest, Hezbollah is by far the world’s most powerful non-governmental army. They boast a well-funded and conventional military not only more powerful than Lebanon’s but arguably the best in the Arab world. More so than any other militants, Hezbollah soldiers are battle-hardened, motivated and disciplined. Their Iranian supplied arsenal includes rockets, tanks, drones and up to 65,000 missiles.

Hezbollah currently fights alongside the forces of Bashar Al-Assad in Syria but their real enemy is Israel, whom they pledge to destroy. Their long term leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claims Hezbollah is more powerful than the IDF.

Sources: ABC News, Asia Times, Al Jazeera, BBC, CNN, Combatting Terrorism Center, Council on Foreign Relations, Counter Extremism Project, The Diplomat, Euromaidan press, Haaretz, Global Research, Global Security, Myanmar Peace Monitor, National Interest,  Russian News Agency, Stanford University – Mapping Militants, Southfront, SyrianCivilWarMap, Times of Israel, Tracking Terrorism, United Nations

See Also:

• The Ten Deadliest Civil Wars
• Khun Sa and the Burmese Opium Trade

Stormclouds over Idlib

 Bashar Al-Assad and his Russian allies have begun their assault on Idlib, Syria’s last rebel stronghold. The days ahead are going to be bloody; likely the final chapter in a war that’s raged for 7 years.

Tahrir Al-Sham, an Al Qaeda affiliated coalition, is the dominant force in Idlib. Then known as the Al-Nusra Front, the jihadist group seized the province from government forces in March 2015.  They imposed Sharia law and, in response to Assad’s growing power, united Idlib’s jihadists under a common banner. Tahrir Al-Sham has 3,000 fighters and controls 60% of the province, including the city of Idlib itself. Since 2016 they have been the Assad regime’s toughest and best-organised opponent.

The Turkish backed ‘National Front for Liberation’ control the rest of the province. Both Jihadist and ‘moderate’ factions number in their ranks.

Assad has been winning since 2016. While his myriad opponents, which once included pro-democracy forces, ISIS and other jihadists, bicker amongst themselves, Assad reasserts his rule province by province.

Assad’s strategy is simple. First, his regime sets its sight on a defiant city or neighbourhood and besieges it, cutting inhabitants off from outside aid. Then Russian jets bomb it to oblivion. When the enemy’s back is broken and its citizenry is starving, regime forces and Iranian militias march in and crush any remaining opposition. One by one the rebel strongholds of Aleppo (2016), Eastern Ghouta and Daraa (2018) fell this way. The strategy is effective, but leaves of thousands of dead citizens every time.

Idlib is home to 3 million people. A third is children and more than half are refugees from elsewhere in Syria.

Turkey has closed its borders. Syria’s northern neighbour already houses 3.5 million refugees and the fears the destabilization a further influx would bring. When the battle for Idlib starts its people will have nowhere to run.  Given the regime and its allies’ tendency for war crimes, a humanitarian catastrophe of potentially unprecedented scale now looms.

On Monday President Trump warned Assad “hundreds of thousands of people could be killed” if he attacks Idlib. He’s right, but a tweet won’t deter Bashar Al-Assad or Vladimir Putin. Turkey and the UN issued similar statements to little avail. Assad, Putin and Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Iran on Friday to discuss the issue.

If Idlib falls, as it likely will, the Syrian Civil War will be over.  While the northwest belongs to the Kurdish ‘Republic of Rojava’, they have maintained an uneasy truce with Damascus throughout the war, and will hopefully reach a peaceful settlement.

For now, Russian planes are already taking the first casualties.

Sources: Al Jazeera, BBC, Foreign Policy, Gulf News, IRIN News, New York Times 

See Also:

• 2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria
• Rojava

2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria

The press and social media is aflame this week over the joint surgical strike by 105 American, British and French missiles against chemical weapon facilities in Syria.  The attack was a response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian Assad regime 9 days earlier, which violated international law and crossed the ‘red line’ set by Obama five years ago and by Emmanuel Macron in 2017.

The move is most controversial in the US. Donald Trump ordered the strike without congressional approval, which is technically unconstitutional, and alienated elements of his support base. Curiously both political opposition and support for the strikes crosses the partisan line.

The official narrative: On 7^th April 2018 Syrian government forces broke international law by attacking the rebel held city of Douma with chemical nerve agents, killing 70 and injuring 500.  Videos circulated of men, women and children clutching gas masks in makeshift hospitals and foaming at the mouth.  The US state department confirmed the attack was real and Assad was responsible.

According to Russia and Assad the gas attack was a false flag operation by the Army of Islam, who holds Douma, and the White Helmets, volunteers who assist civilians in rebel territory. This was to provoke retaliation by the West against Assad, which worked as a charm. Note this narrative does not deny that chemical weapons were used.

Conspiracy theorists and the fringe media paint the attack as a text book false flag operation to justify intervention in Syria as was done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Vietnam etc. This view is shared by far right personalities like Alex Jones, hacktivist group Anonymous and innumerable posts on my newfeed.

Whether or not the gas attack did happen, or Assad was responsible, critics fear the strike could further entangle the US in Syria or, worse still, risk open war with nuclear armed Russia and Iran. The doomsday bells are ringing.

That said, the strike is restrained, and aligns with US policy. Despite Trump’s claims of ‘mission accomplished’, the mission was ultimately little more than a show of force. The Pentagon admitted it will unlikely deter future chemical attacks, while Syrian rebel groups criticised the strike as ultimately ineffective. There were no reported casualties.

The following spoke in support of the missile strike:

• Angela Merkel, German Chancellor
• Justin Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister
• Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli President
• Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, Saudi King
• Tayip Erdogan, Turkish President
• Jens Stoltenburg, Nato Secretary General
• Jean-Claude Juncker, European Union President
• John McCain, Republican Senator
• Elizabeth Wahren, Democrat Senator

The following spoke against:

•  Vladimir Putin, Russian President
• Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, Iranian Supreme Leader
• War Media Channel, Hezbollah
• Jeremy Corbyn, British Labour Party leader
• Marine Le Penn, French National Front leader
• Cenk Uyghur, The Young Turks
• Anonymous
• Tucker Carlson, Fox News
• Tomi Lahren, Great America PAC, Fox News
• Alex Jones, Infowars
• Mike Cervnovich, Danger & Play

The strike is an indicator of the Trump Administration’s move from the America First support base which brought him to power. Just as Obama promised to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq in 2008, Trump promised to cooperate with Vladimir Putin over Syria and limit involvement to combatting ISIS instead of the Assad regime. Whilst his administration refrains from the no fly zone promised by the hawkish Hillary Clinton, the move seems out of touch with Trump’s anti-interventionist campaign rhetoric and particularly his earlier criticisms of Obama.

What will we get for bombing Syria besides more debt and a possible long term conflict? Obama needs Congressional approval.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2013

The alt right blogosphere in particular, who normally stand by Trump’s every action, has lost faith in their hero.

This has happened before: Assad was previously accused of gassing civilians in Ghouta in 2013 and Khan Sheikhoun one year ago. The US responded to Khan Sheikhoun with a missile attack at weapon facilities in Sharyat. Although a few more missiles were fired this April so far the result has been little different than it was last year, except less people were killed. That strike was the first notable rift between the alt right support base and establishment Republicans, as represented by Steve Bannon and the ‘globalist’ Jared Kushner. Bannon has since been fired.

The US has admitted removing Assad from power is not on their agenda anymore. If the powers that be truly wished to instigate WW3, their response to the Douma attack would have been swifter and more aggressive. Given what happened last year, as it stands we are hardly at the brink of Armageddon.

Sources: BBC, CNN, Fox News, New York Times, Haaretz, Al Jazeera, Sputnik, The Guardian, The Independent, The Atlantic, Young Turks

See Also:

• White Helmets

2018 Predictions

These are events that I think will happen this year. I am not Nostradamus, I am not Cassandra, nor do I have a crystal ball. I am not even an expert. These are simple educated guesses and nothing more. Godwilling I will review my predictions in December so long as I don’t fall victim to the impending nuclear apocalypse.

Disclaimer: This list is only speculation. Planned Events certain to occur, like Russia hosting the Fifa World Cup, are not included. Note these are not all positive: just because I think they will happen, does not mean I want them to!

1. The Democrats will win a senate majority in the US Midterm elections

Public confidence in the current administration is low. Donald Trump has the worst average approval rating of any modern president and the Democrats have already won Alabama, the reddest of red states. This does not bode well for the incumbent Republicans, who only hold a slim majority of 51% as is.

2. Bitcoin will surpass 20,000 USD 

Altcoins too will grow in value, with runner up Ethereum reaching 2,000 USD a coin.

3. The USA will suffer its largest ‘mass shooting’ in history

The Pulse Nightclub Shooting took 50 in 2016, the Las Vegas Shooting 59 in 2017. The pattern may continue.

4. New Caledonia will vote no to Independence

The 1998 Noumea Accord stipulates that New Caledonia’s second independence referendum is to be held by November 2018 at the latest.

New Caledonia outstrips other, independent, Pacific islands economically because of French support. New Caledonians, Caldoches and Kanaks alike, simply have too much to lose.

5. Putin will win Russia’s March 2018 Election

This one is obvious. Other autocrats like Egypt’s Abdul Al Sisi, Thailand’s Prayut Chan-o-Cha and Cambodia’s Hun Sen will also be reelected.

6. Social Democrats will win the Brazilian Election

Less certain. Former president Lula de Silva of the Worker’s Party currently tops the polls but faces a pending criminal conviction over the Petrobas Corruption Scandal. Unless overturned, Lula will be ineligible to run for president. This leaves the runner up Social Democrat Party in a promising position, providing they select the right candidate.

7. Artificial Meat will be available in supermarkets.

The first cultured meat burger was tested in 2013. Memphis Meats may not plan public release til 2021, but they have only raised $3 million towards research so far. Competitor Hampdon Creek has already raised over 120.

8. Bashar Al-Asad will win the Syrian Civil War.

This may seem unlikely, but with ISIS out of the picture it’s only a matter of time before the regime emerges triumphant.

9. The Islamic State will launch an insurrection in Southeast Asia

As their caliphate crumbles in the Middle East, the Islamic State looks to new frontiers – specifically East and West Africa, Central and South East Asia.

IS is already spreading its seeds in the later: Malaysian, Indonesian and Filipino fighters are returning home to radicalise their friends while existing insurgent groups unite under the Black Standard.

The ongoing plight of the Muslim Rohingya in Myanmar will prove effective propaganda and the dispossessed will rally to their cause. Marawi’s 2017 violence was only the beginning.

10. Bangladesh will declare war on Burma

Since a standoff with its neighbour in 2007, Bangladesh has purchased Chinese tanks, Russian missiles and helicopters in preparation for a possible war. They are expecting 100 Turkish armoured vehicles this year.

With tensions heated by border violence and thousands of refugees fleeing ethnic cleansing, Bangladesh warned in September that further provocations will trigger ‘unwarranted consequences.”

The last Southeast Asian genocide was only prevented when the Vietnamese invaded. Perhaps Bangladesh will do the same.