Wars of 2022

This is an ongoing list of wars fought in 2022. For clarity, I will use the definition from the Upsalla Conflict Data Programme, a leading authority on wars and conflicts.

A war must:

1. be an armed conflict between states and armed groups involving military and paramilitary units.
2. have over 1,000+ battle-related casualties in a given calendar year.

The broader definition of ‘armed conflicts’ includes insurgencies and smaller-scale clashes. All wars are armed conflicts, but not all armed conflicts are wars.

This list does not include:

• insurgencies spread across multiple countries whose casualties exceed 1,000.
• wars whose casualties have not yet exceeded 1,000 in 2022. I will update, as these occur.

For a full list of ongoing wars, see Wikipedia or Worldpopulation Review.

Today, not all wars are as clear-cut as state conflicts were in the past, where one country fought another. Most are civil wars between governments and arrays of competing rebel groups. As most deaths go unreported, I have taken the highest average estimates. The casualties below are rounded to the nearest 1,000.

Burmese Civil War (Myanmar Conflict)

• Since 1948. Civil war involving Burmese government and rebel groups. 16,000 + casualties

War in Afghanistan

• Since 1978. Civil war involving Taliban government, Islamic State and other rebel groups. 3,000+ casualties.

Colombian Conflict

• Since 1964. Insurgency involving Colombian government, rebel groups and drug cartels. 2,000+ casualties.

Somali Civil War

• Since 1991. Civil war involving Somali government (with US, UK, Turkish and Italian support), Al-Qaeda and Islamic State. 5,000+ casualties.

Allied Democratic Forces insurgency.

• Since 1991. Insurgency involving the Ugandan and Congolese governments and the ‘Allied Democratic Forces’, a Ugandan rebel group. 3,000+ casualties.

War in Darfur

• Since 2003. Civil war involving Sudanese government (with Belarussian and Libyan support) and rebel groups (with South Sudanese support). 1000+ dead.

Mexican Drug War

• Since 2006. Drug war involving Mexican government and drug cartels. 6,000+ casualties.

Syrian Civil War

• Since 2011. Civil war involving Syrian government (with Russian and Iranian support) and rebel groups. 4,000 + casualties.

Nigerian bandit conflict

• Since 2011. Civil war involving Nigerian government, bandit gangs and rebel groups. 2,000+ casualties.

Mali War

• Since 2012. Civil war involving Malinese government, rebel groups and Al-Qaeda. 4,000+ casualties.

Yemeni Civil War

• Since 2014. Civil war between Yemeni government (with Saudi, US and UAE support) and Houthi Rebels (with Iranian support). 6,000 + casualties.

Civil wars in Ethiopia

• Since 2018, including Tigray War. Civil war between Ethiopian government (with Eritrean support) and Tigray rebels, Sudan and Al-Qaeda. 100,000 + casualties.

Russo-Ukrainean War

• Since 2022. Inter-state war between Russia and Ukraine. 156,000 + casualties.

Sources: Uppsala Conflict Data Programme, Wikipedia (lists sources for casualty counts), World Population Review

The 2010s

The 2010s were the second decade of the 21st century. It was a time of increased globalization, political upheaval and rapid technological advancement.

The world economy recovered slowly from the Great Recession of 2008, but new wealth fell into fewer pockets. Neoliberalism prevailed as the dominant economic structure.

An earthquake struck Haiti in 2010, killing over 230,000, injuring 600,000 and displacing 1.5 million. It was the worst natural disaster of the decade.

The Arab Spring: In 2011, protests erupted across the Arab world. Demanding democracy and a fairer economy, they overthrew the dictators of Egypt, Tunisia and Bahrain. With US air support, Libyan rebels toppled Muammar Gaddafi but plunged the country into civil war. The new government failed to assert control and by 2020 Libya was a failed state.

In Syria, President Bashar Al-Asad fought tooth and nail to hold onto power. When rebels came close to winning in 2015, Russia saved the regime through a relentless bombing campaign. By 2020 only a few regions still hold out. Over 500,000 people have died.

The Islamic State, an Al-Qaeda splinter group, took over half Iraq and Syria in 2014. In Iraq, they slaughtered over 8,000 Christians, Shiites, Yazidis and other religious minorities. By 2019 Kurdish and Arab militias had destroyed their short-lived ‘caliphate’ with Russian and American air support.

Russia, under Vladimir Putin, annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014. Ukraine fought Russian-backed separatists on its eastern border.

The War on Terror continued. As of February 2020, NATO forces are still fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan. Groups like Boko Haram and Al-Shabaab threatened the safety of the Sahel and East Africa. In the US, more died from mass shootings than any previous decade. White nationalism became the leading cause of domestic terror.

China became the world’s second-biggest economy (overtaking Japan). In 2017 Xi Jinping (pictured)  made himself dictator for life and the strongest leader since Mao. China expanded its economic hold over the developing world through its Belt and Road initiative. Uighur Muslims became second class citizens.

Nationalism resurged across the globe. Hungary, Turkey, The Philippines, India, Brazil, and the USA elected authoritarian strongmen on populist conservative platforms. In 2016, Donald Trump’s election and Britain’s Brexit referendum upset the old balance of western democracy. Politics became more volatile and divisive.

Smartphones dominated the 2010s. Since Apple released the first iPhone in 2010, Chinese, American and South Korean companies have turned new models at a rapid pace. By 2019, over 3 billion people owned one. Smartphones of today include cameras, music players and constant access to the internet. We can now fit the sum of recorded human knowledge in our pockets.

Digital technology became the world’s strongest industry. Facebook went from 482 million users in 2010 to 2.5 billion in 2019 in addition to acquiring Instagram and Whatsapp. Amazon’s Jeff Bezos became the richest man in the world.

Leaps were made in progressive politics. 18 countries recognised same-sex marriage. Saudi women attained the right to drive and four countries (and 10 US states) legalised recreational marijuana.

Streaming services change the way we consume media. Instead of purchasing an album or DVD, we can now enjoy unlimited access to music, film or television through subscriptions to streaming services like Spotify or Netflix. The business model evolved in response to online piracy and dominated by the latter half of the 2010s, being much more popular with viewers.

Hip-hop, EDM and R&B became the most popular music genres.

Visual media developed significantly. Superhero films became the most popular cinema genre with Avengers: Endgame (2019) grossing over $858.4 million, the highest of all time. Following the likes of the Sopranos, HBO’s series Game of Thrones (2011-2019) showed what television could achieve with a big enough budget. Minecraft became the bestselling video game of all time. The Walt Disney Corporation acquired the rights to Marvel films, Star Wars and 21st Century Fox.

Major Natural Disasters

(Over 5,000 deaths)

• 2011 Haiti Earthquake, 200,000 + dead.
• 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami (Japan). 16,000 + dead.
• 2015 Nepal Earthquake. 9,000 + dead

Revolutions:

• Kyrgyzstan (2010)
• Tunisia (2011)
• Egypt (2011)
• Bahrain (2011)
• Libya (2012)
• Ukraine (2014)
• Sudan (2019)

Major Wars

(Over 10,000 casualties.)

• Mexican Drug War (2009 -)
• Somali Civil War (2009 -)
• Boko Haram Insurgency (Nigeria, 2009 -)
• Syrian Civil War (2011 -)
• Northern Mali Conflict (2012 -)
• 2014 Israel-Palestine Conflict (2014)
• War in the Donbas (Ukraine, 2014 -)
• Iraqi Civil War (2014 – 2017)
• Yemeni Civil War (2015 -)

Genocides: 

• Rohingya Genocide (Burma, 2017), 24,000+ killed
• ISIS killing of Christians, Shiites and Yazidis (2014), 8,000+ killed

New countries:

• · South Sudan (2011)

New Technology

• Smartphones
• Cryptocurrency
• AIDS treatment
• Self-driving cars
• 3D Printers
• 5G network

Extinctions:

• Eastern cougar (2011)
• Japanese river otter (2012)
• Pinta Island tortoise (2012)
• Cape Verde giant skink (2013)
• Formosan clouded leopard (2013)
• Bermuda saw-whet owl (2014)
• Christmas Island forest skink (2017)
• Western black rhinoceros (2018)
• Bramble Cay memomys (2019)

Sources: Al Jazeera, The Balance, Counter Extremism Project, Cnet, I Am Syria, Mint Hill Times, Statista, Vox, Wikipedia

See Also:

• 2016:
  • Cambridge Analytica
  • Rojava
• 2017:
  • Charlottesville Riot
  • 2017 Warsaw March
  • Robert Mugabe
• 2018:
  • 2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria
  • Stormclouds over Idlib
  • The World’s Strongest Militant Groups
• 2019:
  • The Christchurch Mosque Shooting
  • The Sri Lanka Easter Bombings
  • The Polar Bear Invasion of 2019
  • Amazon Burning
  • The Sudan Crisis
  • Protests of 2019
  • The Death of Qassem Soleimani
• Books:
  • Yuval Noah Harari – Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind (2014)
• Films:
  • Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (2017)
  • The Irishman (2019)
  • Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (2019)
  • Parasite (2019)
• Television:
  • Game of Thrones (2011-2019)
  • The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (2017 – )
  • John Oliver’s China Episode (2018)
  • Succession (2018)
• Music:
  • Leon Bridges – Good Thing  (2018)
  • The HU

Rojava

Rojava (2016-) is the unrecognised Kurdish state in Syria. Officially ‘the autonomous confederation of North and East Syria’, it governs 3 million Kurds and 2 million Arabs, Assyrians, Syriac Christians, Circassians, Turkmen and Armenians. Rojava spans a third of Syria and is a key player in the Syrian Civil War. Abandoned by its US allies last weekend, it currently faces a Turkish invasion.

The Kurds are a Western Iranian people living in the highlands of the Middle East. The breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918-23 divided their homeland between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. They have struggled for independence ever since. Kurds are 20% of Turkey and 10% of Syria. Most are Sunni Muslims.

Rojava’s ideology follows the teachings of Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), a Kurdish rebel group based in Turkey. Their Social Contract advocates a secular, decentralised system, governed by democratic assemblies, that enshrines women’s and minority rights. Their libertarian socialist experiment puts them at odds with both Syria’s Baathist dictatorship and the Islamists fighting it.

In 2012 overextended Syrian troops withdrew from the country’s northeast, letting Kurdish militias fill the vacuum. In 2014 ISIS seized the Kurdish city of Kobani. The Kurds retaliated with help from the PKK. With American air support, they spearheaded the fight against ISIS and in 2016 established Rojava across Kurdish and Arab lands that include Syria’s oilfields.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is Rojava’s army. It encompasses a Kurdish core and allied Arab militias. As US allies, the SDF proved better organised and more reliable than the ‘moderate’ rebels previously supported. Volunteers from around the world flocked to their banners like the International Brigades of the Spanish Civil War. Their female fighters terrified ISIS, who believe they will not go to heaven if killed by a woman. In March 2019 the SDF destroyed the last ISIS stronghold in Syria. Thousands of prisoners fell into their hands.

Turkey, though allied with the US, considers Rojava a terrorist entity. This is due to their ties with the PKK, whom Turkey and the USA deem terrorists. A Kurdish state at Turkey’s borders will embolden the PKK and possibly support their 40-year struggle. Turkey dared not strike Rojava while US troops were stationed there, however allied Syrian rebels fight on its behalf.

In October 2019 Donald Trump announced full American withdrawal from Syria. Their objective – to destroy ISIS – was complete. As soon as they left, Turkish troops invaded. Turkey seeks to establish a ‘safe zone’ along the border in which to resettle two million Syrian refugees and separate Rojava from the PKK. That safe zone contains much of the Kurdish population and key cities the SDF pledges to defend.

Rojava stands no chance on its own. Despite their experience and drive, SDF foot soldiers are no match for NATO’s second-largest military, fully equipped with aircraft and tanks. Since Sunday, 104 fighters and 60 civilians have died, with casualties mounting. With the US gone, their only hope is to ally with the Syrian regime, the same one that has denied Kurds civil rights for decades. Should their 12,000 prisoners of war escape, ISIS will rise again.

Mazlam Abdi, SDF commander-in-chief:

“We know that we would have to make painful compromises with Moscow and Bashar al-Assad if we go down the road of working with them. But if we have to choose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life for our people.”

Sources: Associated Press, Al Jazeera, BBC, Democracy Now, The Economist, Foreign Policy

See Also:

• The World’s Strongest Militant Groups
• White Helmets
• 2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria
• Stormclouds over Idlib
• The 2010s

White Helmets

The White Helmets are the largest humanitarian organisation in Syria. Founded in 2014, their 3,000 members risk death to aid and rescue civilians in the ‘most dangerous places on earth’.

According to the White Helmet website:

‘Our mission is to save the greatest number of lives in the shortest possible time and to minimise further injury to people and damage to property.’

When the vicious realities of the Syrian civil war caught the world’s attention in 2012, international aid agencies and NGOs offered to help Syrian civil defence volunteers. The Turkish charity AKUT and the British Mayday Rescue Foundation provided training in first aid, rescue and trauma care to Syrians across the border.  In 2014, these volunteer groups formed Syria Civil Defence or the ‘White Helmets’. Though externally funded, their ranks comprise of Syrians.

Syrian rebel territory, particularly dense urban zones like Aleppo, is subject to mortar fire, aerial bombardment, barrel bombs and chemical nerve agents.  Unarmed White Helmets rescue civilians from the rubble, tend to the wounded and maintain water and electrical services. They claim to have saved over 114, 131 lives since the war began.

Syria’s regime and their Russian allies consider the White Helmets enemies. Saving lives and rebuilding infrastructure in hostile territory is not in their interest, as doing so prolongs surrender. Assad claims the White Helmets are both members of Al Qaeda and agents of US imperialism.  Sputnik, a Russian news agency, describes the White Helmets as ‘busy cooking up lies instead of protecting the human rights of the Syrian people”, stressing that liberal bogeyman George Soros is a major donor. Kremlin propaganda also pushes a conspiracy theory claiming the White Helmets are American spies who conducted the 2018 sarin gas attack as a false flag operation.

The White Helmets are not without Western detractors either. Blogger Vanessa Bailey, known for her coverage of Israel and Syria, anti-Israel academic Max Blumenthal, and Roger Waters of Pink Floyd are among the best known, as well as the usual cohort of American alt-right figures who buy into Russian propaganda. They claim the White Helmets:

• are anti-Assad
• operate mainly in Jihadist territory
• are funded by foreign governments
• want foreign governments to intervene against Assad

All true. However, if volunteers are saving lives does it really matter what banner flies over them? The White Helmets are merely unarmed medical workers. Even so, if you witnessed the ravages of Russian bombardment firsthand, you would probably be anti-Assad too. Maybe you’d even favour intervention. During the height of the siege of Aleppo in 2016, the White Helmets and three other charities accused Russia of war crimes.

Only in rebel territory are innocents bombed day and night by Russian warplanes. Only in rebel territory are the White Helmets allowed to operate. Before her murder at the hands of a far-right terrorist, British Labour MP Joe Cox nominated the White Helmets for a Nobel Prize. If you ask me they are heroes.

In April 2018, President Trump halted US aid to the White Helmets.  In July, when regime forces took the regions of Deraa and Quintera, over 800 White Helmets and their families were stranded on the Israeli border. Israel evacuated 422 of them through the Golan Heights to Jordan. Now Syria’s remaining White Helmets are stranded in Idlib province, the last territory still fighting Assad.

Sources: BBC, The Conversation, The Guardian, Russia Today, New York Times, The Nation, Sputnik, Syria Civil Defense

See Also:

• Battle for Idlib
• 2018 Sarin Attack

Stormclouds over Idlib

 Bashar Al-Assad and his Russian allies have begun their assault on Idlib, Syria’s last rebel stronghold. The days ahead are going to be bloody; likely the final chapter in a war that’s raged for 7 years.

Tahrir Al-Sham, an Al Qaeda affiliated coalition, is the dominant force in Idlib. Then known as the Al-Nusra Front, the jihadist group seized the province from government forces in March 2015.  They imposed Sharia law and, in response to Assad’s growing power, united Idlib’s jihadists under a common banner. Tahrir Al-Sham has 3,000 fighters and controls 60% of the province, including the city of Idlib itself. Since 2016 they have been the Assad regime’s toughest and best-organised opponent.

The Turkish backed ‘National Front for Liberation’ control the rest of the province. Both Jihadist and ‘moderate’ factions number in their ranks.

Assad has been winning since 2016. While his myriad opponents, which once included pro-democracy forces, ISIS and other jihadists, bicker amongst themselves, Assad reasserts his rule province by province.

Assad’s strategy is simple. First, his regime sets its sight on a defiant city or neighbourhood and besieges it, cutting inhabitants off from outside aid. Then Russian jets bomb it to oblivion. When the enemy’s back is broken and its citizenry is starving, regime forces and Iranian militias march in and crush any remaining opposition. One by one the rebel strongholds of Aleppo (2016), Eastern Ghouta and Daraa (2018) fell this way. The strategy is effective, but leaves of thousands of dead citizens every time.

Idlib is home to 3 million people. A third is children and more than half are refugees from elsewhere in Syria.

Turkey has closed its borders. Syria’s northern neighbour already houses 3.5 million refugees and the fears the destabilization a further influx would bring. When the battle for Idlib starts its people will have nowhere to run.  Given the regime and its allies’ tendency for war crimes, a humanitarian catastrophe of potentially unprecedented scale now looms.

On Monday President Trump warned Assad “hundreds of thousands of people could be killed” if he attacks Idlib. He’s right, but a tweet won’t deter Bashar Al-Assad or Vladimir Putin. Turkey and the UN issued similar statements to little avail. Assad, Putin and Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan will meet in Iran on Friday to discuss the issue.

If Idlib falls, as it likely will, the Syrian Civil War will be over.  While the northwest belongs to the Kurdish ‘Republic of Rojava’, they have maintained an uneasy truce with Damascus throughout the war, and will hopefully reach a peaceful settlement.

For now, Russian planes are already taking the first casualties.

Sources: Al Jazeera, BBC, Foreign Policy, Gulf News, IRIN News, New York Times 

See Also:

• 2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria
• Rojava

2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria

The press and social media is aflame this week over the joint surgical strike by 105 American, British and French missiles against chemical weapon facilities in Syria.  The attack was a response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian Assad regime 9 days earlier, which violated international law and crossed the ‘red line’ set by Obama five years ago and by Emmanuel Macron in 2017.

The move is most controversial in the US. Donald Trump ordered the strike without congressional approval, which is technically unconstitutional, and alienated elements of his support base. Curiously both political opposition and support for the strikes crosses the partisan line.

The official narrative: On 7^th April 2018 Syrian government forces broke international law by attacking the rebel held city of Douma with chemical nerve agents, killing 70 and injuring 500.  Videos circulated of men, women and children clutching gas masks in makeshift hospitals and foaming at the mouth.  The US state department confirmed the attack was real and Assad was responsible.

According to Russia and Assad the gas attack was a false flag operation by the Army of Islam, who holds Douma, and the White Helmets, volunteers who assist civilians in rebel territory. This was to provoke retaliation by the West against Assad, which worked as a charm. Note this narrative does not deny that chemical weapons were used.

Conspiracy theorists and the fringe media paint the attack as a text book false flag operation to justify intervention in Syria as was done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Vietnam etc. This view is shared by far right personalities like Alex Jones, hacktivist group Anonymous and innumerable posts on my newfeed.

Whether or not the gas attack did happen, or Assad was responsible, critics fear the strike could further entangle the US in Syria or, worse still, risk open war with nuclear armed Russia and Iran. The doomsday bells are ringing.

That said, the strike is restrained, and aligns with US policy. Despite Trump’s claims of ‘mission accomplished’, the mission was ultimately little more than a show of force. The Pentagon admitted it will unlikely deter future chemical attacks, while Syrian rebel groups criticised the strike as ultimately ineffective. There were no reported casualties.

The following spoke in support of the missile strike:

• Angela Merkel, German Chancellor
• Justin Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister
• Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli President
• Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, Saudi King
• Tayip Erdogan, Turkish President
• Jens Stoltenburg, Nato Secretary General
• Jean-Claude Juncker, European Union President
• John McCain, Republican Senator
• Elizabeth Wahren, Democrat Senator

The following spoke against:

•  Vladimir Putin, Russian President
• Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, Iranian Supreme Leader
• War Media Channel, Hezbollah
• Jeremy Corbyn, British Labour Party leader
• Marine Le Penn, French National Front leader
• Cenk Uyghur, The Young Turks
• Anonymous
• Tucker Carlson, Fox News
• Tomi Lahren, Great America PAC, Fox News
• Alex Jones, Infowars
• Mike Cervnovich, Danger & Play

The strike is an indicator of the Trump Administration’s move from the America First support base which brought him to power. Just as Obama promised to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq in 2008, Trump promised to cooperate with Vladimir Putin over Syria and limit involvement to combatting ISIS instead of the Assad regime. Whilst his administration refrains from the no fly zone promised by the hawkish Hillary Clinton, the move seems out of touch with Trump’s anti-interventionist campaign rhetoric and particularly his earlier criticisms of Obama.

What will we get for bombing Syria besides more debt and a possible long term conflict? Obama needs Congressional approval.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2013

The alt right blogosphere in particular, who normally stand by Trump’s every action, has lost faith in their hero.

This has happened before: Assad was previously accused of gassing civilians in Ghouta in 2013 and Khan Sheikhoun one year ago. The US responded to Khan Sheikhoun with a missile attack at weapon facilities in Sharyat. Although a few more missiles were fired this April so far the result has been little different than it was last year, except less people were killed. That strike was the first notable rift between the alt right support base and establishment Republicans, as represented by Steve Bannon and the ‘globalist’ Jared Kushner. Bannon has since been fired.

The US has admitted removing Assad from power is not on their agenda anymore. If the powers that be truly wished to instigate WW3, their response to the Douma attack would have been swifter and more aggressive. Given what happened last year, as it stands we are hardly at the brink of Armageddon.

Sources: BBC, CNN, Fox News, New York Times, Haaretz, Al Jazeera, Sputnik, The Guardian, The Independent, The Atlantic, Young Turks

See Also:

• White Helmets