2020 So Far

Disclaimer: This post is based on information from the media by someone living outside of North America as I currently understand it. It focuses on events in the world hegemon, the USA.

In January, tensions between the USA and Iran reached an all-time high following the assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani. World War 3 memes flooded the internet while, in Iran and elsewhere, the protests of 2019 continued. The year’s greatest challenge to the USA and its hegemony proved not an external enemy however, but a global disease and problems within the nation itself.

In February, Covid-19, a deadly virus, spread from a market in Wuhan across China. By March it went global, killing hundreds of thousands. Governments forced their populations into lockdown, closing businesses and urging their people to stay at home. Transmission stalled at the economy’s expense.

By May, the USA had suffered the most, with over a million cases and over 100,000 dead. Black Americans were hit disproportionately.

On May 21st, white Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin arrested George Floyd, an unarmed black man, for using a counterfeit bill. The officer then kneeled on Floyd’s neck for nine minutes as he cried ‘I can’t breathe’ until he died. Floyd’s death, the latest in a long list of documented murders-by-police, was the spark which set the forest ablaze. 

Minneapolis, and over 75 other cities, erupted in protests against systemic racism and police brutality. With law enforcement stretched thin, looters took to the streets at night. Businesses big and small suffered. Authorities deployed State Troopers and on, June 1st the National Guard. Currently ongoing, it is the USA’s worst civil unrest since the 1960s. 

There has been major unrest in the USA every generation. Unlike the 1965 Watts Riots, or 1992 Rodney King Riots, however, the George Floyd protests have coincided with a pandemic, economic collapse and the century’s most unpopular presidency. Through such concurrences, empires fall.

The USA was already in a fragile state. Millions, particularly those on minimum hour contracts, lost their livelihoods in the lockdown. With a weak social safety net and a terrible healthcare system, America has not weathered the storm well. People are angry and have little to lose. 

What happens next?

Donald Trump will run on a law and order platform as Nixon did in 1968. Against the uninspiring Joe Biden, he will likely win.

As for the bigger picture, there are three possibilities:

1. Cities invoke meaningful steps to reform and demilitarise the American police and the prison-industrial complex. They hold murderous cops accountable. 
2. Protests continue but struggle against heavy law enforcement. Riots abate. Systemic racism enters the public discourse and small steps are taken to meet protestor demands. The status quo prevails.
3. Riots worsen. Armed groups intervene. Someone fires at police lines and they respond with live bullets. Trump calls the military. The USA implodes as Rome did and the rest of the world fights over its ashes. 

Whatever the case, Covid-19 will spike in the USA. It will take months to fully recover.

The LAPD reformed somewhat following the Rodney King Riots of 1992. Now the Minneapolis city government pledges to defund the police and mandate officers intervene against colleagues using excessive force. Proclaiming support for Black Lives Matter has become trendy amongst corporations. Most significantly, the protests have brought attention to the structural inequality that persists in the United States but also highlighted the political and social division which defines our era. Whatever happens in the next six months, historians will study 2020 for years to come.

Sources: Data.pnj, CNN, The Economist, The Guardian, Vox

See Also:

• Protests of 2019
• The Death of Qassem Soleimani
• John Prine – That’s How Every Empire Falls

The Death of Qassem Soleimani

Qassem Soleimani was Iran’s top general from 1998 – 2020. A US drone killed him and 54 others near Baghdad Airport on January 3rd 2020 on orders of the Pentagon and President Trump. The attack could be considered an act of war against Iran and has significantly escalated tensions between the two states. If worst comes to worst, history will remember him as the Franz Ferdinand of our time.

Soleimani led the Quds Force, the foreign branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. He was the country’s second most famous person after the Ayatollah and favoured by 82% of Iranians, according to a 2019 poll. Known for his calm and calculating demeanour, Soleimani had a knack for forging friendships amongst unlikely allies. He coordinated the alliance between Iran, Russia and Syria and allied Shia militias: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq.

Born poor in 1958, Soleimani supported the 1979 Revolution that established the Islamic Republic of Iran. He made a name for himself in the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s and by 1998 was leading the Quds Force. Soleimani led the fight against ISIS in Iraq by forging an unlikely alliance between the Iraqi military and Shia and Kurdish militias. With ISIS defeated, Iran contends with Saudi Arabia and the USA for influence over the region.

The US has considered assassinating Soleimani since 2003. Both Bush and Obama recognised his value to rival Iran but considered the implications too risky. Trump authorised the drone strike but did not consult Congress, legal only when responding to an ‘imminent threat’.

The attack was a culmination of a tit-for-tat feud between the US and Iran in Iraq:

• 27/12/19: PMF (Shia militia) attack a US-Iraqi base, killing one US contractor and two Iraqi soldiers
• 29/12/19: US airstrikes kill 25 PMF militiamen
• 31/12/19: PMF storm US Embassy in Baghdad. 0 casualties.
• 3/12/20: US drones kill Soleimani, the PMF’s second in command and 53 others

The current crisis began in 2018 when the USA pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal and reimposed sanctions. Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb, which would deter the USA from invading and bolster its international standing. Considering their ties to rivals Russia and China, and hatred for ally Israel, the US wants to stop that. Sanctions can slow the process, but only invasion can prevent it.

Iran’s leadership vowed to avenge Soleimani’s death. Hundreds of thousands attended his funeral in over eight cities, including his hometown of Kerman, where a stampede killed 80 mourners. President Trump responded via Twitter, threatening to bomb 52 sites of cultural significance if Iran retaliates. They did retaliate, but only with a symbolic missile strike on an American base in Iraq that killed no one. On the 9th, January however, a commercial plane bound for Kiev crashed in Iran, killing all on board. The 176 passengers were mainly Iranian and Canadian citizens. Canada’s Justin Trudeau blamed Iran. After initially denying involvement, Iran accepted it had mistakenly shot the plane down.

Soleimani was no terrorist. He had blood on his hands and threatened the geostrategic interests of the USA and her Middle Eastern allies but not American civilians.

His death comes at a crucial time for both countries. Iran is undergoing anti-regime protests and economic hardship. In 2020 President Trump of the US, who promised his voter base both to defy Iran and avoid overseas conflicts, faces reelection and impeachment. Tensions with Iran could rally nationalist support for Trump and get Republican hawks on his side – their support he needs when facing the senate.

Sources: ABC News, Al Jazeera, BBC, The Economist, The Guardian

See Also:

• Protests of 2019
• The World’s Strongest Militant Groups (2018, Popular Mobilisation Forces not listed)
• 2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria

Rojava

Rojava (2016-) is the unrecognised Kurdish state in Syria. Officially ‘the autonomous confederation of North and East Syria’, it governs 3 million Kurds and 2 million Arabs, Assyrians, Syriac Christians, Circassians, Turkmen and Armenians. Rojava spans a third of Syria and is a key player in the Syrian Civil War. Abandoned by its US allies last weekend, it currently faces a Turkish invasion.

The Kurds are a Western Iranian people living in the highlands of the Middle East. The breakup of the Ottoman Empire in 1918-23 divided their homeland between Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. They have struggled for independence ever since. Kurds are 20% of Turkey and 10% of Syria. Most are Sunni Muslims.

Rojava’s ideology follows the teachings of Abdullah Öcalan, founder of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers Party), a Kurdish rebel group based in Turkey. Their Social Contract advocates a secular, decentralised system, governed by democratic assemblies, that enshrines women’s and minority rights. Their libertarian socialist experiment puts them at odds with both Syria’s Baathist dictatorship and the Islamists fighting it.

In 2012 overextended Syrian troops withdrew from the country’s northeast, letting Kurdish militias fill the vacuum. In 2014 ISIS seized the Kurdish city of Kobani. The Kurds retaliated with help from the PKK. With American air support, they spearheaded the fight against ISIS and in 2016 established Rojava across Kurdish and Arab lands that include Syria’s oilfields.

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is Rojava’s army. It encompasses a Kurdish core and allied Arab militias. As US allies, the SDF proved better organised and more reliable than the ‘moderate’ rebels previously supported. Volunteers from around the world flocked to their banners like the International Brigades of the Spanish Civil War. Their female fighters terrified ISIS, who believe they will not go to heaven if killed by a woman. In March 2019 the SDF destroyed the last ISIS stronghold in Syria. Thousands of prisoners fell into their hands.

Turkey, though allied with the US, considers Rojava a terrorist entity. This is due to their ties with the PKK, whom Turkey and the USA deem terrorists. A Kurdish state at Turkey’s borders will embolden the PKK and possibly support their 40-year struggle. Turkey dared not strike Rojava while US troops were stationed there, however allied Syrian rebels fight on its behalf.

In October 2019 Donald Trump announced full American withdrawal from Syria. Their objective – to destroy ISIS – was complete. As soon as they left, Turkish troops invaded. Turkey seeks to establish a ‘safe zone’ along the border in which to resettle two million Syrian refugees and separate Rojava from the PKK. That safe zone contains much of the Kurdish population and key cities the SDF pledges to defend.

Rojava stands no chance on its own. Despite their experience and drive, SDF foot soldiers are no match for NATO’s second-largest military, fully equipped with aircraft and tanks. Since Sunday, 104 fighters and 60 civilians have died, with casualties mounting. With the US gone, their only hope is to ally with the Syrian regime, the same one that has denied Kurds civil rights for decades. Should their 12,000 prisoners of war escape, ISIS will rise again.

Mazlam Abdi, SDF commander-in-chief:

“We know that we would have to make painful compromises with Moscow and Bashar al-Assad if we go down the road of working with them. But if we have to choose between compromises and the genocide of our people, we will surely choose life for our people.”

Sources: Associated Press, Al Jazeera, BBC, Democracy Now, The Economist, Foreign Policy

See Also:

• The World’s Strongest Militant Groups
• White Helmets
• 2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria
• Stormclouds over Idlib
• The 2010s

2018: Western Powers Bomb Syria

The press and social media is aflame this week over the joint surgical strike by 105 American, British and French missiles against chemical weapon facilities in Syria.  The attack was a response to the alleged use of chemical weapons by the Syrian Assad regime 9 days earlier, which violated international law and crossed the ‘red line’ set by Obama five years ago and by Emmanuel Macron in 2017.

The move is most controversial in the US. Donald Trump ordered the strike without congressional approval, which is technically unconstitutional, and alienated elements of his support base. Curiously both political opposition and support for the strikes crosses the partisan line.

The official narrative: On 7^th April 2018 Syrian government forces broke international law by attacking the rebel held city of Douma with chemical nerve agents, killing 70 and injuring 500.  Videos circulated of men, women and children clutching gas masks in makeshift hospitals and foaming at the mouth.  The US state department confirmed the attack was real and Assad was responsible.

According to Russia and Assad the gas attack was a false flag operation by the Army of Islam, who holds Douma, and the White Helmets, volunteers who assist civilians in rebel territory. This was to provoke retaliation by the West against Assad, which worked as a charm. Note this narrative does not deny that chemical weapons were used.

Conspiracy theorists and the fringe media paint the attack as a text book false flag operation to justify intervention in Syria as was done in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Vietnam etc. This view is shared by far right personalities like Alex Jones, hacktivist group Anonymous and innumerable posts on my newfeed.

Whether or not the gas attack did happen, or Assad was responsible, critics fear the strike could further entangle the US in Syria or, worse still, risk open war with nuclear armed Russia and Iran. The doomsday bells are ringing.

That said, the strike is restrained, and aligns with US policy. Despite Trump’s claims of ‘mission accomplished’, the mission was ultimately little more than a show of force. The Pentagon admitted it will unlikely deter future chemical attacks, while Syrian rebel groups criticised the strike as ultimately ineffective. There were no reported casualties.

The following spoke in support of the missile strike:

• Angela Merkel, German Chancellor
• Justin Trudeau, Canadian Prime Minister
• Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli President
• Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, Saudi King
• Tayip Erdogan, Turkish President
• Jens Stoltenburg, Nato Secretary General
• Jean-Claude Juncker, European Union President
• John McCain, Republican Senator
• Elizabeth Wahren, Democrat Senator

The following spoke against:

•  Vladimir Putin, Russian President
• Ayatollah Ali Khomeini, Iranian Supreme Leader
• War Media Channel, Hezbollah
• Jeremy Corbyn, British Labour Party leader
• Marine Le Penn, French National Front leader
• Cenk Uyghur, The Young Turks
• Anonymous
• Tucker Carlson, Fox News
• Tomi Lahren, Great America PAC, Fox News
• Alex Jones, Infowars
• Mike Cervnovich, Danger & Play

The strike is an indicator of the Trump Administration’s move from the America First support base which brought him to power. Just as Obama promised to withdraw from Afghanistan and Iraq in 2008, Trump promised to cooperate with Vladimir Putin over Syria and limit involvement to combatting ISIS instead of the Assad regime. Whilst his administration refrains from the no fly zone promised by the hawkish Hillary Clinton, the move seems out of touch with Trump’s anti-interventionist campaign rhetoric and particularly his earlier criticisms of Obama.

What will we get for bombing Syria besides more debt and a possible long term conflict? Obama needs Congressional approval.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 29, 2013

The alt right blogosphere in particular, who normally stand by Trump’s every action, has lost faith in their hero.

This has happened before: Assad was previously accused of gassing civilians in Ghouta in 2013 and Khan Sheikhoun one year ago. The US responded to Khan Sheikhoun with a missile attack at weapon facilities in Sharyat. Although a few more missiles were fired this April so far the result has been little different than it was last year, except less people were killed. That strike was the first notable rift between the alt right support base and establishment Republicans, as represented by Steve Bannon and the ‘globalist’ Jared Kushner. Bannon has since been fired.

The US has admitted removing Assad from power is not on their agenda anymore. If the powers that be truly wished to instigate WW3, their response to the Douma attack would have been swifter and more aggressive. Given what happened last year, as it stands we are hardly at the brink of Armageddon.

Sources: BBC, CNN, Fox News, New York Times, Haaretz, Al Jazeera, Sputnik, The Guardian, The Independent, The Atlantic, Young Turks

See Also:

• White Helmets

One Month On: Assessing Charlottesville

It’s been a month since the Charlottesville Riot. On August 12^th, supposedly protesting the planned removal of a Robert E Lee statue, hundreds descended on the town in a torch lit rally, displaying an array of white nationalist insignia including swastikas. Chants included the Nazi maxim ‘Blood and Soil’, ‘White Lives Matter’ and ‘Jews will not replace us’. They clashed with counter protesters the next day, resulting in one death and multiple injuries.

‘The Unite the Right’ rally was, truthfully, a ‘Unite the Far Right’ rally. All the white supremacist groups coalesced: klansmen, neo-Nazis, neo-confederates and, most notably, adherents of the burgeoning alt right movement.

Only one particular cohort seemed missing – skinheads. The eponymous hairdo and doc martins, it seems, have been replaced by the khakis and white polos of the new generation’s racists. Skinheads, as a distinct subculture, have largely died out, succeeded by the far more savvy and successful alt right, a movement of unprecedented growth, owing  to its ‘softened’ and intellectualised image.

The Charlottesville rally showed their strength – these were not merely keyboard warriors, but a numerous and organised movement, capable of putting boots on the ground.

I argue the march backfired.

The statue that started it all, in Lee Park, Charlottesville Virginia. Soon to be removed.

Lee Statues: Charlottesville prompted the immediate removal of the Lee statue, along with confederate monuments across the US.

• August 15^th: Demonstrators illegally remove the courthouse Confederate Soldiers Monument in Durham, North Carolina.
• August 16^th: Baltimore authorities remove the city’s Stonewall Jackson and Robert E Lee Statues.
• August 19^th: The Lee monument at Duke University is removed.
• September 18^th: Dallas removes the Lee Statue in the city park.

The removal of confederate monuments in the south was already a growing trend in 2017. The ugly display of hate at Charlottesville only quickened the pace by authorities all too eager to distance themselves from the Old South’s white supremacist legacy.

Charlottesville protesters posing for a photo

Alt Right: At Charlottesville the alt right’s careful cultivation of a refined, accessible white nationalist movement was decimated. The Nazi imagery, the violence and Heather Heyer’s murder showed the movement’s true colours (or at least that off its extremist wing). These were not simple patriots espousing positive white identity but bigots of a familiar stripe, whose message is little different from the neo-Nazis they marched alongside.

Public opinion has hardened against the alt right. Whilst the media’s reaction may strengthen their core, few wish to associate with hard-core racists and neo-Nazis. The Charlotesville protesters was widely condemned; by religious leaders, celebrities, politicians, even Angela Merkel. Anti-fascist rallies followed in Berkley, Brooklyn, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The Daily Stormer and the Right Stuff, pages representing the alt right’s extremist wing, have since been exiled to the dark web. A follow up ‘free speech’ rally in Boston was inundated by counter protesters.

Donald Trump – After the death of Heather Heyer and President Trump’s ‘many sides’ comments, the media had a field day. Trump received the most flak since last’s years ‘pussygate’ scandal. His manufacturing council dissolved and Steve Bannon – Trump’s link to the alt right, resigned.  Pundits were quick to note the marchers’ approval of Trump’s words.

Donald Trump is incapable of denouncing anyone who praises him (Trump-Pence signs appeared at the rally), or hiding his true feelings, so his comments were not surprising. Nevertheless, the president has repeatedly demonstrated that he is a bed of nails; his response to Charlottesville march will ultimately blow over.

One month on, the shock reaction and public frenzy to the march has died down. Many quietly agree that both sides were to blame, especially given Antifa’s dubious and violent track record.  Counter protesters may have started the violence, it is true, but when one side’s ranks espouse a genocidal ideology and the other merely react, recognising the greater evil should not be difficult.

What will come of the alt right, and their bubbling anger, remains to be seen.